An expired crypto signal is one that reached its maximum hold time without price touching its target. It did not win; time ran out before it got there. On the live performance page it is shown as Missed and counted against the target-hit rate, because a signal that never got where it said it would go is not a success, whatever price did in the meantime. Expiry ends the signal on the record only: it does not close anything on your account. Most published win rates quietly leave expired signals out, which is why they look better than they are.
This is the outcome nobody puts in the marketing. It is also the outcome that tells you the most about a provider, because how they count it reveals whether they are measuring the signals or measuring themselves.
How a signal can end
A HafizeBot broadcast signal carries an entry, a target and a maximum hold. It does not carry a stop. From the moment it is sent, only three things can happen:
- Win. Price reaches the target inside the maximum hold.
- Missed (expired). The maximum hold passes without the target. A signal that moved the wrong way ends here too, because the record has no stop to end it sooner.
- Open. Neither yet.
Many other services publish a stop with each signal, and their signals have a fourth ending: a loss, when price reaches the stop first. When you compare two records, check which set of endings each one uses.
There is no "partial" either. A signal that got halfway to target and then reversed to the entry is not "half a win"; it either reached the target inside the hold window or it did not.
How each outcome is counted
The live performance page is regenerated hourly from the same table the bot writes when it sends a signal. Its columns are Wins, Missed and Open, and its target-hit rate is:
wins ÷ (wins + missed)
Wins are the numerator. Missed signals are in the denominator only. Open signals are left out until they resolve — counting them either way would be guessing.
So an expired signal lowers the rate exactly as much as a stopped-out loss would on a record that has stops. That was a choice: the page could have dropped expiries. It counts them because a signal that never arrived is a signal that did not work.
What August 2026 actually looked like
Real numbers, from the published page. In August 2026 the bot broadcast 5,262 element signals. 5,122 hit their target. 140 were missed. None is still open: every signal has had its full time to resolve.
Target-hit rate: 5,122 ÷ (5,122 + 140) = 97.3%.
Two things to notice. First, 140 expiries is under 3% of the month — small, but a real share of outcomes, and every one of them sits in the denominator. Second, there is no loss column on the page, and that does not mean no signal went against us. Broadcast signals carry no stop-loss, so a signal that moves the wrong way runs to its max hold and is counted as Missed, against our rate. The missing loss column is how the record is built, not a claim of perfection; on an account, it is the member's own stop-loss setting that decides when a trade going the wrong way is cut.
The monthly rates — 98.4% in June, 97.2% in July, 97.3% in August, with September still settling while its newest signals run — move because the expiry share moves. A choppy month produces more signals that go nowhere. A rate that never moved would be a rate that was not counting.
The hold length moves the number too, which is the clearest demonstration in this article. From 3 October 2026 signals have longer to reach their target before they count as expired, and on 4 October 2026 every earlier month was scored again under the same hold, so all months follow one rule. Under the shorter hold used before, the same June, July and August read 94.3%, 88.3% and 91.0%. Same signals, same prices: a longer window turned most of those expiries into wins, and the ones that are left are the signals that did not get there even with the extra time.
Same signals, two ways of counting
Take the same August and count it the way most providers do: wins ÷ (wins + losses), expiries dropped. With no stop on the record there are no losses either, so 5,122 ÷ 5,122 = 100%.
Same signals. Same month. Almost three points of difference, produced entirely by deciding that 140 signals did not happen — and the gap widens in a sideways month, as the next section shows.
This is not a hypothetical. It is the standard way a published win rate is built, and it is why so many providers show numbers in the high nineties. They are not lying about the trades they count. They are choosing which trades to count.
How dropping expiries inflates a rate over time
The worst part is the direction of the error. In a trending market, few signals expire and the two methods agree. In a sideways market, more and more signals stall — and the dropped-expiry rate rises as the honest rate falls, because every stalled trade vanishes from the denominator while the few that did reach target remain.
So the flattering method is most flattering exactly when the signals are performing worst. A provider using it will look best in the months you would most want a warning.
What share of signals expire
August's 2.7% is a real figure; the bands around it are illustrative. The honest expectation is that the share moves with the market. A trending month might see a few percent expire. A sideways grind can push it much higher. If a provider reports a flat expiry share — or no expiry share at all — the question is not whether their signals are better; it is whether they are measuring.
Why a maximum hold exists at all
A signal without a maximum hold is a signal that can never lose on paper. Hold it long enough and price will, eventually, cross almost any level. That is why "open" cannot be allowed to mean "still might win" forever: it turns every stalled trade into a future win that has simply not happened yet, and it turns the win rate into a function of patience rather than signal quality.
The maximum hold closes that loophole. When it is reached, the signal is over on the record and its outcome is written down. The specific duration is a parameter of the system rather than something published; what matters for reading the record is that it is the same for every signal and that reaching it counts as a failure to arrive.
What expiry does to a position on your account
Nothing. Expiry is an event on the record, not an order. When a signal the autotrader traded for you expires, the bot does not close the position: the position, its take-profit and any stop stay on Binance until one of them fills or you close it yourself, so it can still reach its target afterwards. If you have no stop set, a bot-opened trade closes only at its target, by you, or by Binance liquidation, unless you set a maximum hold (/setMaxHold) or a delisting close (/setDelistingClose); nothing closes it when the signal expires.
The help page on what a missed signal means for you puts a number on "afterwards". Rebuilt from Binance price history for the 2021–2024 archive, the positions still open at month end would have reached their combined take-profit 99% of the time, half within six days, at a median +2.2% unleveraged, after a median 16% drawdown. That drawdown alone would liquidate about four in ten of those positions at 5x. So the signal's hold does not protect your account; your own stop-loss and a modest leverage do.
Expiry versus a stop: what a record without stops cannot show
On a service whose signals carry a stop, a loss and an expiry are different failures. A stop is the thesis being wrong quickly: price went the other way far enough to hit a level. An expiry is the thesis never playing out: price did not get far enough inside the window, and the direction may even have been right and simply slow.
Our broadcast signals carry a target and a maximum hold, not a stop, so on our record both failures land in the same Missed column: a signal that went hard the wrong way and one that drifted sideways look the same. That is a real limit of how this record is built, and we would rather say so than hide it. On your account the line between "wrong" and "slow" is drawn by your own stop-loss setting, while the record simply waits out the hold.
What to do when a signal you followed manually expires
If you are trading from the free channel by hand, the provider's maximum hold does not close your position. Nothing does, unless you do or a stop you placed does. That is the practical difference between following a record and being in it.
So decide your own exit rule before you enter, and write it down. One version mirrors the record: if the trade has not reached target in the window you set, close it at market and log it as an expiry. Another is to let it run toward its target behind a stop you can live with; the archive figures above show why the stop is not optional on that path. Either way, do not extend a time limit because the trade is "almost there". Almost there is what every expiry looked like at some point.
Then count it honestly. An expiry you closed at a small gain is still an expiry — the signal did not deliver what it said. If your own ledger drops those, your rate will drift upward for the same reason a provider's does, and you will be measuring your patience rather than the signals.
Questions to ask any provider about signals that go nowhere
You can apply this to any signal service, including this one:
- Is there a maximum hold at all?
- What happens to a signal when it is reached?
- Does that outcome appear in the published rate, and on which side of the division?
- Can I see the count of expired signals, not just the percentage?
- Are open signals excluded until they resolve?
- Do stalled signals ever get deleted from history?
A provider who answers the first five clearly and the sixth with "no" is measuring the signals. Any other pattern is measuring something else. The method in how to verify a crypto signal win rate turns these into a spreadsheet you can fill in yourself.
What a provider shows against what it counts
There are four kinds of provider. The auditable kind shows expiries and counts them against the rate. The half-honest kind shows them but drops them from the arithmetic, so the number and the table disagree. The rare kind counts them but never shows them, which is honest but unverifiable. And the usual kind neither shows nor counts.
You can place a provider in this matrix in about two minutes by looking for the word "expired" anywhere in their published results.
Where the expiry rule comes from
The published record is older than this rule. The 33 monthly spreadsheet reports covering June 2021 to February 2024 — 33,694 signals, downloadable at /reports — record every order under a looser rule, and the rates in them are as reported in those sheets. The performance page scores every signal since June 2026 under the stricter one, hourly, from the live database. Broadcast signals carry no stop-loss, so the page has no loss column: every signal that does not reach its target in time is counted as Missed, against the rate. In October 2026 the hold became longer, and every earlier month was scored again under it so the whole page follows one rule.
The story of why every signal is published, losers included, is in we published every signal for three years.
Reading a signal so you know what expiry would mean for you
If you follow signals manually from the free channel at t.me/getbinancefutures, expiry is your problem as much as the provider's: a signal you entered that has not reached its target is a position you are still holding, with whatever risk you left on it. Decide before you enter what your own maximum hold is. The guide to how to read crypto signals covers what each field means; the hold is the field most people never set for themselves.
And if you run the autotrader, remember that an outage does not change any of this: the take-profit and any stop you set rest on the exchange, and a signal that expires while the bot is down expires the same way, with nothing closed on your account.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean when a crypto signal expires? The signal reached its maximum hold time without price touching its target. It did not win; time ran out. On the performance page it is shown as Missed and counts against the target-hit rate.
Does an expired signal close my position? No. Expiry ends the signal on the record only. On your account the position, its take-profit and any stop stay on Binance until one of them fills or you close it, so it can still reach its target later. Without a stop, nothing but the target, you or liquidation closes it.
Does an expired signal count as a loss? In the rate, it counts the same way: the formula is wins divided by wins plus missed. Broadcast signals carry a target and a maximum hold, not a stop, so there is no separate loss column; a signal moving the wrong way runs to its hold and is recorded as Missed. That is how the record is built, not a claim that nothing went wrong.
Why do most win rates not mention expired signals? Because dropping them makes the rate higher. Wins divided by wins plus losses, with stalled trades removed, produces numbers in the high nineties even in months where many signals went nowhere.
How many signals expire in a typical month? It moves with the market. In August 2026, 140 of 5,262 broadcast signals were missed, under 3%, under the current hold. Trending months see fewer; sideways months see more, and a shorter hold sees many more: under the hold used until October 2026 the same August read 91.0%, so about 9% of its signals counted as expired.
What is the maximum hold time? A fixed parameter applied to every signal; the specific duration is part of the system rather than a published figure. What matters for reading the record is that it is the same for every signal and that reaching it counts as a failure to arrive.
Closing note
An expired signal is the outcome most records leave out. How a provider handles it — shows it, counts it, or makes it disappear — tells you more than the headline rate ever will.
None of this is investment advice. Cryptocurrency futures carry a high risk of loss; trade only with money you can afford to lose.